Here’s the real unemployment rate

The real unemployment rate for December 2012 is closer to 23 percent, not the 7.8 percent reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to economist John Williams.

Williams, author of the Shadow Government Statistics website, argues that the federal government manipulates the reporting of key economic data for political purposes, using methodologies that tend to mask bad news.

In the BLS news release Jan. 4, the unemployment rate for December 2012 was reported to have remained unchanged at 7.8 percent.

Williams recreates a ShadowStats Alternative unemployment rate reflecting methodology that includes the “long-term discouraged workers” that the Bureau of Labor Statistics removed in 1994 under the Clinton administration.

The BLS publishes six levels of unemployment, but only the headline U3 unemployment rate gets the press. The headline number does not count “discouraged” unemployed workers who have not looked for work in the past four weeks because they believe no jobs are available.

Read more here.

It’s an Obama World… Long Term Unemployment at Highest Level Since WWII

When America reelected Barack Obama they voted for higher unemployment, lower incomes, record government spending, and a stagnant under-performing economy. Barack Obama promises to bring even more pain his second term.

In the US today:
12 million Americans remain unemployed.
In December 22.6 million Americans were unemployed or underemployed.
The average unemployed American is out of work for nearly 40 weeks.

To understand just how bad things are, and just what a failure Obama’s first term has been, you have to see it graphically.

This chart was released by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, via BizzyBlog:

Union Workers In Michigan Protest Against Right To Work And For More Unemployment

Unemployment Plunges to 3.8% for Government Workers

The unemployment rate for government workers plunged from 4.2 percent in October to 3.8 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as government added 35,000 to its taxpayer-funded payrolls during the month.

In October, federal, state and local governments in the United States employed 20,524,000 people. In November, that climbed to 20,559,000.

As recently as July, the unemployment rate for government workers was as high as 5.7 percent, according to the BLS. That month, government employed only 20,015,000.

Since July, times have been very good for government in the United States, with governments managing to add 544,000 workers to their payrolls.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts someone as a government worker if they are not in the military and they are currently employed by any level of government—local, state or federal—or they are unemployed, they are looking for work, and their last job was for any level of government.

Read more here.

Merry Christmas: Gallup Reports Unemployment Jump to 8.3%

After a few post-Hurricane Sandy weeks of new jobless claims hitting over 400,000, it looks as though we’ve settled back into the new and accepted normal of new claims landing somewhere in the 360,000 to 390,000 range. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this week saw 370,000 new claims filed.

Keep in mind, though, that it’s only in Barack Obama’s America that we’ve learned to celebrate any number under 400,000. We’re nowhere near the point where our economy creates enough jobs to keep up with those lost every week. But because the media will never allow Obama to fail at anything, only 370,000 new unemployment claims is an occasion for pom-poms and much dancing around the golden calf.

Meanwhile, Gallup is reporting that unemployment spiked last month from 7.0% to 7.8%. Adjusted seasonally, the rate is 8.3%. This is the sharpest one-month increase Gallup’s seen in two years:

Read more here.

Surprise! Jobless Claims Up 78,000 Week After Election; PA, OH Worst Hit

The Department of Labor has announced that new jobless claims rose by a staggering 78,000 in the first week after the election, reaching a seasonally-adjusted total of 439,000. Over the past year, and in the weeks leading up to the election, jobless claims were said to be declining, dipping as low as 339,000, with the media proclaiming that they had reached the “lowest level in more than four years.” Now, suddenly, the news seems far less rosy.

From the Department of Labor press release this morning:

In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 372,000.

Read more here.

OCTOBER SURPRISE(LIE): UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 7.8% — BUT SKEPTICISM ABOUNDS

Unemployment drops to 44-month low to 7.8%
However, many are questioning the numbers due to “contradictory data points” such as the total unemployment level soaring but the low net number
Former GE CEO alleged fraud, sending a tweet saying “these Chicago guys will do anything”

In what will be one of the most influential jobs reports of the election season, unemployment fell from 8.1% to 7.8% in September, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The private sector added 114,000 jobs in September.

While another report will be released three days before the election, Friday‘s report is the one that will provide the bulk of material on the campaign trail during the election’s crucial final month.

The numbers, however, are perplexing to CNBC, which notes that there are some oddities:

The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.
The falling jobless rate had been a function as much of the continued shrinking in the labor force as it was an increase in new positions.
But the government said the total number of jobs employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.
The labor force participation rate, which reflects those working as well as looking for work, edged higher to 63.6 percent but remained around 30-year lows. The total labor force grew by 418,000, possibly accounting for the relatively modest net level of job growth.

Read more here.

You Don’t Owe That

If only President Obama would treat America’s small business owners as well as he treats delinquent borrowers, the U.S. economy might have a fighting chance at robust growth.

We’ll have to wait until Friday to see how slowly the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter. But today Team Obama will tell Congress about its latest proposals to spread the wealth around—specifically from private lenders to the people who owe them money on student loans. The goal is to create new ways for borrowers to avoid repayment.

Having recently forced taxpayers to underwrite a series of such measures for loans issued by the government, the White House now wants the shareholders of financial companies to suffer even more when private loans go bust.

Not that there are many private loans left after Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats seized control of this market with legislation that passed along with ObamaCare in 2010. With roughly $1 trillion in student loans outstanding, close to $900 billion are federal loans, and Uncle Sugar is responsible for more than 90% of recent loan originations. But the existence of a market sliver still occupied by private enterprise gives politicians a handy industry to blame for mounting troubles in a government-dominated business.

Even though nearly 90% of defaults are occurring on loans backed by the taxpayer, last week the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rolled out a new report on purported flaws in the private market. To underline the absurdity of focusing on private loans, the White House’s own budget is forecasting default rates above 20% on some types of federal loans issued in fiscal 2013. That means defaults could be in the titanic range above $20 billion. All of the private firms probably won’t issue half that amount in total loans, never mind bad loans.

Read more here.

Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

Chart below shows it all – that jump is not a fat finger!

Read more here.

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